Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction

Why do trends in human society sometimes change so suddenly? The past three years show how quickly cultural shifts can occur, which makes answering the question above all the more urgent. In 1999, we were celebrating our heroes, the stock market had reached unprecedented heights - and many people believed that peace in the Middle East was at hand.

Three years later, the economy is weak, corporate executives are being thrown in jail, bloodletting between Israelis and Palestinians is daily ritual, India is testing missiles, North Korea is threatening the U.S. with nuclear destruction, the U.S. is at war with Iraq, European allies are deserting the U.S., a senator is calling for the resignation of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Americans are stocking supplies for terrorist attacks.

Why do trends in human society sometimes change so suddenly? The past three years show how quickly cultural shifts can occur, which makes answering the question above all the more urgent. In 1999, we were celebrating our heroes, the stock market had reached unprecedented heights - and many people believed that peace in the Middle East was at hand.

Three years later, the economy is weak, corporate executives are being thrown in jail, bloodletting between Israelis and Palestinians is daily ritual, India is testing missiles, North Korea is threatening the U.S. with nuclear destruction, the U.S. is at war with Iraq, European allies are deserting the U.S., a senator is calling for the resignation of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Americans are stocking supplies for terrorist attacks.